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E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5491.00, up 470.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,288.75, up 2,045.00

We knew it was coming, but the timing was very difficult. E-mini S&P futures had their best day since 2008 after President Trump gave a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, implementing only the 10% baseline to all countries other than China. For China, he raised tariffs to 125% after the country retaliated again. As for the timing of the rally, one clue we leaned into was the fact that price action did not disintegrate as it did last week after China raised tariffs on the U.S., and names like NVDA held at unchanged despite surrendering overnight gains. Then the tape moved off those premarket lows as the U.S. opening bell approached. We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but this brings hope that normalization could be close.

The March CPI report is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for Core at +0.3% m/m, up from +0.2% in February, and +3.0% y/y, down from +3.1%. Analysts expect headline at +0.1%, down from +0.2% in February and +2.5% y/y, down from +2.8%.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures traded through and settled above resistance aligning with last Thursday’s settlement. However, the E-mini S&P has surrendered this level which stands as our Pivot and point of balance at…

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