WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 62.35, up +2.77 [+4.65%]

90 Day Pause!!

Yesterday, Trump gave us the 90-day pause on tariffs we were praying for, and the risk-on rally that followed was one for the record books.

The downwards pressure of negative sentiment we’ve seen over the past month should ease up here, which allows us to focus more on the fundamentals. The market will now shift their focus back on OPEC+ and the stickiness behind their output hike decision.

Today, Crude Oil is down -1.80 [-2.88%] to 60.55

The risk-on bid continued overnight in Asia with Japanese equities finishing +9% higher and Chinese equities rallying by +1.31%.

This morning we got a weak CPI report, something which has not been seen for awhile. It does not bode well for the strength of the U.S. economy, but it does help ease stagflation fears. If we get weak growth and tame inflation the Fed can ease conditions, if weak growth comes with strengthening CPI – it stifels the Fed’s ability to act.

Last night, Russia agreed to a prisoner swap with the U.S. and agreed to talks. This may help drive crude oil prices lower as ceasefire speculations are back on the table.

Interfax is reporting that Kazakhstan will try and reach the OPEC+ goal in April. Kazakhstan and Iraq are the OPEC problem children and cited as the core reason behind the Saudi’s decision to hike.

Technical Analysis:

We remain neutral at these levels but have a bullish tilt. We are sitting on our hands through the end of the week to see how the Trump news shakes out before re-attacking this market. Having said that, if we were to take a position – it would favor the upside.

It is vital that crude settles above Tuesday’s close of 59.58

First-line crude futures have not seen the mid-50s since the 2021 COVID era of minimal demand and global inventories remain tight.

Yesterday’s rally was a step in the right direction but OPEC pressures will continue to weigh. Our take profit level in the mid 50’s has been realized and we have little conviction in either direction through the end of the week.

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at…

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