4/9/25

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     The 90-Day tariff pause caused all commodities to trade higher today. The Livestock Markets rocketed higher today. The Fats were up almost 5 bucks today. June'25 Live Cattle were 4.75 higher today and settled at 198.37 ½. Today's high was 199.37 ½ and the 1-month and contract high is 207.72 ½. Today's low was 191.80 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 3/7 June'25 Live Cattle are 1.90 higher or almost 1%. The Feeders were up more than 7-dollars at one point today.  May'25 Feeder Cattle were 6.47 ½ higher today and settled at 278.20. Today's high was 279.42 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 290.62 ½. Today's low was 269.60 and the 1-month low is 276.20. Since 3/7 May'25 Feeder Cattle are unchanged or just crazy. The Hogs gained almost 2 bucks today. June'25 Lean Hogs were 1.92 ½ higher today and settled at 91.70. Today's high was 92.57 ½ and the 1-month high is 99.70. Today's low was 88.00 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 3/7 June’25 Lean Hogs are 6.40 lower or more than 6%. The June'25 Fats traded through the 100-Day moving average of 192.50 today and set a new 1-month low at 191.80, and then all the markets took off. The June'25 Fats settled 6.57 ½ off the lows today. 190 has been my target level and we will see if the Funds take advantage of this unexpected rally and liquidate more of their long position. If the Fats trade below the 1-month low, then 188.98 is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. The Feeder had the same trading patterns as the Fats, but in a bigger way. May'25 Feeders traded to within 1.52 of the 100-Day moving average of 268.08 and then shot higher. May'25 feeders settled 8.60 above the low of the day. I still think we will see more selling over the next few days. The June'25 Hogs made a new 1-month low today and settled almost 4-Dollars higher from there. I think we can see the June'25 Hogs climb back above the 96.05 level soon. Most commodities broke when the tariffs were first announced and everything rallied today because of the 90-Day pause, however, there are still many contracts in the Cattle Markets that need to be sold or rolled. Be careful getting long at these levels. The Dow Jones Index closed almost 3000 points higher today, or more than 7%.

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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. I like The Wheat at 650. Bean Oil up almost 3% today, Natural Gas was up more than 9% today. 

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     The Grain Markets took off after the 90-Day tariff pause was announced today. The Beans had a solid gain today. May'25 Soybeans were 20 cents higher today and settled at 1012 ¾. Today's high was 1015 ½ and the 1-month high is 1034 ¾. Today's low was 987 ½ and the 1-month low is 969 ½. Since 3/7 May'25 Soybeans are 42 cents lower or more than 4%. The Corn was higher again today. May'25 Corn gained 5 cents today and settled at 474. Today's high was 475 ½ and the 1-month high is 477 ½. Today's low was 465 ¾ and the 1-month low is 442. Since 3/7 May'25 Corn is 4 ¾ cents higher or about 1%. The Wheat Market fought back today. May'25 Wheat was 2 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 542 ¼. Today's high was 546 and the 1-month high is 575 ¼. Today's low was 536 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract low is 517 ½. Since 3/7 May'25 Wheat is 9 ¼ cents lower or almost 2%. The break in the Grains over the last week was substantial but provided opportunity to keep buying calls and selling puts. It took some testicular fortitude, but it worked out in the long run. Now these markets can run higher, and profits can expand. You have to love the Options Markets. I still like all the same levels in the Grain Markets. I feel we can see the May'25 Soybeans traded through the 200-Day moving average of 1043 ¾ and head toward the 1100 level. 1096 is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. The Corn continues to look good, and I feel it can reach 500 again soon. May'25 Corn was just 2 cents shy of the 1-month high of 477 ½ today. The Wheat Market had a nice bounce as well today and I feel we can see this market continue higher for a while. I still like the 580 level, with the 1-month high of 575 ¼, and the 200-Day moving average of 583. I think we can see the wheat trade through the 600 level and head toward the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low 644 ½. I feel the Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil are now set to trade much higher from here. There is a huge short in the Meal and Bean oil stocks are very low. If the Beans continue to rally, and I feel they can, then the Meal and Oil can trade much higher. For the May'25 Soybean Meal I like the 330 level for starters. I still feel we can see the Soybean Oil explode from here. As soon as the EPA and Biofuel Counsel meet and announce new blending levels nationally, I feel the Bean oil will shoot straight up. I still like the 65 level in the September'25 contract month. The Natural Gas had a good rebound today as well. Japan and South Korea have announced they want to start buying huge amounts for Natural Gas from the US as part of a tariff relief plan. President Trump has also said he want to have Europe buy US Natural Gas as well. He said that would be a great way to offset the trade imbalance. I am more Bullish the Soybean Oil and Natural Gas Markets now, then I have ever been. The Bean Oil was almost 3% higher today, and the Natural Gas was more than 9% higher today, and I feel we will see many more days like today. If you would like to talk about anything, give me a call. Have a great night everyone. 

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*Starting next week, I will have the Walsh Gamma Trader every Monday, and Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain every Tuesday and Thursday. *

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August'25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.  

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September'25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below. 

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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it. 

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Give me a call if you have any questions.

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Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division 

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

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